Indications for healthcare surge capacity in European countries facing an exponential increase in COVID19 cases

Frederik Verelst; Elise J. Kuylen; Philippe Beutels

In Italy, the concentration of critical care beds is at the higher end with 12.5 critical care beds per 100 000 population, compared to the European average of 11.5 [5] . Moreover, the physician density was found to be above average, at about 400 physicians per 100 000 individuals [4] . In Figure 1 , we displayed the results of the composite measures using the intensity-approach on March 25. We find that the pressure on the Italian healthcare system was 8 times higher on March 25 than on March 11. Spain is, next to Italy, the most severely affected country at about 7 times the pressure, compared to the benchmark situation. The Netherlands, France, Switzerland, The UK and Belgium's health systems are also experiencing relatively high pressure, at similar or higher levels as in the benchmark situation. Note that these results can be consulted on the website and are updated every hour, for all combinations of measures and approaches. Figure 1 : Relative pressure on the healthcare systems for 10 countries under relatively high pressure as indicated by composite measures, using the "intensity-approach". Ratios are normalized to the cumulative number of COVID-19 related deaths in Italy on March 11, 2020. Ratios were calculated for the combination of critical care beds and either physicians, or physicians and nurses.