Author: Bimandra A Djaafara; Natsuko Imai; Esther Hamblion; Benido Impouma; Christl A Donnelly; Anne Cori
Title: A quantitative framework to define the end of an outbreak: application to Ebola Virus Disease Document date: 2020_2_20
ID: nnkholfe_54
Snippet: Some of the flare-ups happened 51, 68, 78, and 80 days after the EO declarations, highlighting the importance of the WHO recommendation of 90 days of enhanced surveillance after the 42-day period of waiting time from the outcome of the last detected case to declare the EO of EVD. The importance of this enhanced surveillance period is also supported by our results. Our simulations show that the probability of cases arising in the future after this.....
Document: Some of the flare-ups happened 51, 68, 78, and 80 days after the EO declarations, highlighting the importance of the WHO recommendation of 90 days of enhanced surveillance after the 42-day period of waiting time from the outcome of the last detected case to declare the EO of EVD. The importance of this enhanced surveillance period is also supported by our results. Our simulations show that the probability of cases arising in the future after this 132-day (42 + 90 day) period from the outcome of the last detected case is generally lower than 5% except in rare scenarios with a high reproduction number during the 'decline' phase (Web Figure 2) .
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