Author: Bimandra A Djaafara; Natsuko Imai; Esther Hamblion; Benido Impouma; Christl A Donnelly; Anne Cori
Title: A quantitative framework to define the end of an outbreak: application to Ebola Virus Disease Document date: 2020_2_20
ID: nnkholfe_55
Snippet: Our simulations show that the estimated probability of cases arising in the future were very sensitive to the value of , the instantaneous reproduction number at time , during the 'decline' period. Therefore, monitoring during an outbreak is very important to accurately define the EO. Especially in the 'decline' period, ensuring that is reduced well below 1 is critical for bringing the outbreak to an end. Current methods available to estimate the.....
Document: Our simulations show that the estimated probability of cases arising in the future were very sensitive to the value of , the instantaneous reproduction number at time , during the 'decline' period. Therefore, monitoring during an outbreak is very important to accurately define the EO. Especially in the 'decline' period, ensuring that is reduced well below 1 is critical for bringing the outbreak to an end. Current methods available to estimate the instantaneous reproduction number during the outbreak may suffer from imprecision if there is uncertainty in the serial interval distribution estimates and more generally at the EO when case numbers are low (34) .
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