Author: Jonas Dehning; Johannes Zierenberg; Frank Paul Spitzner; Michael Wibral; Joao Pinheiro Neto; Michael Wilczek; Viola Priesemann
Title: Inferring COVID-19 spreading rates and potential change points for case number forecasts Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: c8zfz8qt_5
Snippet: With the start of this third change point, λ takes approximately the critical value where the spreading rate λ balances the recovery rate µ, i.e. the effective growth rate λ * = λ − µ ≈ 0 ( Fig. 1, green traces) . The case numbers in the coming week will provide more information on its precise value. Importantly, λ * = 0 presents the watershed between exponential growth or decay. Together with the delay of approximately two weeks betwe.....
Document: With the start of this third change point, λ takes approximately the critical value where the spreading rate λ balances the recovery rate µ, i.e. the effective growth rate λ * = λ − µ ≈ 0 ( Fig. 1, green traces) . The case numbers in the coming week will provide more information on its precise value. Importantly, λ * = 0 presents the watershed between exponential growth or decay. Together with the delay of approximately two weeks between infection and first inference of λ * , any future intervention such as lifting restrictions therefore warrants careful consideration.
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