Modeling COVID-19 Transmissions and Evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction in Jakarta, Indonesia

Hasan, A.; Nasution, Y.; Susanto, H.; Putri, E.; Tjahjono, V.; Puspita, D.; Sukandar, K.; Nuraini, N.; Widyastuti, W.

This paper presents mathematical modeling and quantitative evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction (LSSR) in Jakarta between 10 April and 4 June 2020. The special capital region of Jakarta is the only province among 34 provinces in Indonesia with an average Testing Positivity Rate (TPR) below 5% recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The transmission model is based on a discrete-time compartmental epidemiological model incorporating suspected cases. The quantitative evaluation is measured based on the estimation of the time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt). Our results show the LSSR has been successfully suppressed the spread of COVID-19 in Jakarta, which was indicated by Rt<1. However, once the LSSR was relaxed, the effective reproduction number increased significantly. The model is further used for short-term forecasting to mitigate the course of the pandemic.