Author: Joshua A Salomon
Title: Defining high-value information for COVID-19 decision-making Document date: 2020_4_8
ID: iymhykq8_63
Snippet: To implement SIR, we drew 10,000 vectors of parameters, with each parameter drawn from an independent uniform distribution spanning the range in Table 2 . For parameters not listed in Table 2 , we used base case values specified in Table 1 . We then computed the likelihood of each parameter vector given the target data, assuming that cumulative cases on March 15 were distributed normally and using the drawn value of c to determine the number of k.....
Document: To implement SIR, we drew 10,000 vectors of parameters, with each parameter drawn from an independent uniform distribution spanning the range in Table 2 . For parameters not listed in Table 2 , we used base case values specified in Table 1 . We then computed the likelihood of each parameter vector given the target data, assuming that cumulative cases on March 15 were distributed normally and using the drawn value of c to determine the number of known cases estimated by the model. Finally, we resampled parameter vectors from the original set of 10,000, with replacement, using sampling probabilities proportional to the computed likelihood of each parameter vector in order to obtain an analytical estimate of the posterior distribution given the prior and our model.
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