Selected article for: "average duration and hospitalization average duration"
Author: Joshua A Salomon
Title: Defining high-value information for COVID-19 decision-making
  • Document date: 2020_4_8
    • ID: iymhykq8_8
    Snippet: We assumed that 33% of ascertained cases required hospitalization, 12 and back-calculated the proportion of all cases requiring hospitalizations for a given set of parameter values (Supplemental Information). We assumed that average duration of hospitalization for COVID-19 was 10 days. 6 We estimated a hospital capacity constraint using AHA estimates and assumed that 50% of beds could be available for COVID -19 patients. 12,13 To assess the poten.....
    Document: We assumed that 33% of ascertained cases required hospitalization, 12 and back-calculated the proportion of all cases requiring hospitalizations for a given set of parameter values (Supplemental Information). We assumed that average duration of hospitalization for COVID-19 was 10 days. 6 We estimated a hospital capacity constraint using AHA estimates and assumed that 50% of beds could be available for COVID -19 patients. 12,13 To assess the potential decision value of new information, we focused on the projected time until the hospital supply constraint was exceeded by COVID-19 demand as a proxy for major decision-relevant outcomes. First, we calculated the uncertainty around this projected time when the model was only calibrated to the confirmed case counts through March 15. Second, we evaluated the reduction in this uncertainty that would result from obtaining more precise information about 1) the effectiveness of NPIs or 2) the fraction of all cases ascertained. For illustration, we considered narrowing uncertainty around NPI effectiveness to either a 10-30%

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