Selected article for: "contact ban and effective growth rate"
Author: Jonas Dehning; Johannes Zierenberg; Frank Paul Spitzner; Michael Wibral; Joao Pinheiro Neto; Michael Wilczek; Viola Priesemann
Title: Inferring COVID-19 spreading rates and potential change points for case number forecasts
  • Document date: 2020_4_6
    • ID: c8zfz8qt_26
    Snippet: We incorporate the effect of governmental interventions into our model by introducing flexible change points in the spreading rate (see Methods). During the COVID-19 outbreak in Germany, governmental interventions occurred in three stages from (i) the cancellation of large events with more than 1000 participants (around March 9), through (ii) closing of schools, childcare centers and the majority of stores (in effect March 16), to (iii) the conta.....
    Document: We incorporate the effect of governmental interventions into our model by introducing flexible change points in the spreading rate (see Methods). During the COVID-19 outbreak in Germany, governmental interventions occurred in three stages from (i) the cancellation of large events with more than 1000 participants (around March 9), through (ii) closing of schools, childcare centers and the majority of stores (in effect March 16), to (iii) the contact ban and closing of all non-essential stores (in effect March 23) . The aim of all these interventions was to reduce the (effective) growth rate λ * = λ − µ. As soon as the growth rate becomes negative (λ * < 0), the number of new confirmed infections All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.

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