Author: Jonas Dehning; Johannes Zierenberg; Frank Paul Spitzner; Michael Wibral; Joao Pinheiro Neto; Michael Wilczek; Viola Priesemann
Title: Inferring COVID-19 spreading rates and potential change points for case number forecasts Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: c8zfz8qt_33
Snippet: The model with three change points describes the data better than all other models, as indicated by the leave-one-out (LOO) cross-validation-based Bayesian model comparison [37] (lowest LOO-score in Table I ). However, the model with two change points still has a comparable LOO-score within one standard deviation, which is expected since the present data (as of April 9) just barely entered the regime of the third change point -based on the known .....
Document: The model with three change points describes the data better than all other models, as indicated by the leave-one-out (LOO) cross-validation-based Bayesian model comparison [37] (lowest LOO-score in Table I ). However, the model with two change points still has a comparable LOO-score within one standard deviation, which is expected since the present data (as of April 9) just barely entered the regime of the third change point -based on the known timing of the third intervention (March 23) and the estimate for the delay D (posterior median: 9.3 days). As expected, the models with none or a single change point have LOO-scores that are at least about one standard deviation higher (worse) than those of the best models and may be discarded.
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