Author: Jonas Dehning; Johannes Zierenberg; Frank Paul Spitzner; Michael Wibral; Joao Pinheiro Neto; Michael Wilczek; Viola Priesemann
Title: Inferring COVID-19 spreading rates and potential change points for case number forecasts Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: c8zfz8qt_13
Snippet: Our framework is designed to infer the effectiveness of past measures and to explore potential future scenarios with propagating the respective uncertainties. In the following we demonstrate the potential impact of timing and magnitude of change points, and report our inference about the three past governmental interventions in Germany. Our framework can be readily adapted to any other country or region. The code (already including data sources f.....
Document: Our framework is designed to infer the effectiveness of past measures and to explore potential future scenarios with propagating the respective uncertainties. In the following we demonstrate the potential impact of timing and magnitude of change points, and report our inference about the three past governmental interventions in Germany. Our framework can be readily adapted to any other country or region. The code (already including data sources from many other countries), as well as the figures are all available on Github [31].
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