Author: Jonas Dehning; Johannes Zierenberg; Frank Paul Spitzner; Michael Wibral; Joao Pinheiro Neto; Michael Wilczek; Viola Priesemann
Title: Inferring COVID-19 spreading rates and potential change points for case number forecasts Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: c8zfz8qt_43
Snippet: The detection of change points and their interpretation depend crucially on an accurate estimate of the reporting delay D. Therefore, the validity of its estimate should be evaluated. In our model D contains at least three distinct factors: the biological incubation period (median 5-6 days) [32] , an additional delay from first symptoms to symptoms motivating a test (1-2 days) and possible delay before a testing results come in (1-2 days). The su.....
Document: The detection of change points and their interpretation depend crucially on an accurate estimate of the reporting delay D. Therefore, the validity of its estimate should be evaluated. In our model D contains at least three distinct factors: the biological incubation period (median 5-6 days) [32] , an additional delay from first symptoms to symptoms motivating a test (1-2 days) and possible delay before a testing results come in (1-2 days). The sum of these delays seems compatible with our inferred median delay of D = 9.3 days, especially given the wide range of reported incubation periods.
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