Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 within a religious sect in South Korea: a mathematical modeling study

Kim, J.-H.; Lee, H.; Won, Y. S.; Son, W.-S.; Im, J.

Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was observed in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, a religious sect in South Korea. The index case was confirmed on February 18, 2020 in Daegu City, and within two weeks, 3,081 connected cases were identified. Doubling times during the initial stages of the outbreak were less than 2 days. A stochastic model fitted to the time series of confirmed cases suggests that the basic reproduction number (R0) of 18 COVID-19 was 8.5 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6.3, 10.9] among the church members, whereas R0 = 1.9 [95% CrI: 0.4, 4.4] in the rest of the population of Daegu City. The model also suggests that there were 4 [95% CrI: 2, 11] undetected cases when the first case reported symptoms on February 7. The Shincheonji Church cluster is likely to be emblematic of other outbreak-prone populations where R0 of COVID-19 is higher. Understanding and subsequently limiting the risk of transmission in such high-risk places is key to effective control.