Author: Adeshina Israel Adekunle; Michael Meehan; Diana Rojaz Alvarez; James Trauer; Emma McBryde
Title: Delaying the COVID-19 epidemic in Australia: Evaluating the effectiveness of international travel bans Document date: 2020_3_27
ID: c1eemq9v_14
Snippet: Future travel restrictions may have an impact for the next few weeks but potential importations will eventually be overwhelmed by local transmission, unless we can completely control transmission by achieving a reproduction number below 1. We estimate local transmission will outweigh imports sometime in the next two weeks if transmission proceeds at the pace it did in China prior to Jan 21 (R0 = 2.63), but will be delayed if Australia can success.....
Document: Future travel restrictions may have an impact for the next few weeks but potential importations will eventually be overwhelmed by local transmission, unless we can completely control transmission by achieving a reproduction number below 1. We estimate local transmission will outweigh imports sometime in the next two weeks if transmission proceeds at the pace it did in China prior to Jan 21 (R0 = 2.63), but will be delayed if Australia can successfully reduce transmission to a level similar to China from Jan 21 (R0 = 1.73).
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