Selected article for: "relative infectiousness and spatial transmission"
Author: Lloyd A. C. Chapman; Simon E. F. Spencer; Timothy M. Pollington; Chris P. Jewell; Dinesh Mondal; Jorge Alvar; T. Deirdre Hollingsworth; Mary M. Cameron; Caryn Bern; Graham F. Medley
Title: Inferring transmission trees to guide targeting of interventions against visceral leishmaniasis and post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis
  • Document date: 2020_2_25
    • ID: nqn1qzcu_8
    Snippet: Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for 362 spatial clustering of infection and disease when modelling 363 VL transmission. Previous VL transmission dynamic models 364 (23, 41-43) have significantly overestimated the relative con-365 tribution of asymptomatic infection to transmission (as up 366 to 80%), despite assuming asymptomatic individuals are only 367 1-3% as infectious as VL cases, by treating the population 368 as homoge.....
    Document: Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for 362 spatial clustering of infection and disease when modelling 363 VL transmission. Previous VL transmission dynamic models 364 (23, 41-43) have significantly overestimated the relative con-365 tribution of asymptomatic infection to transmission (as up 366 to 80%), despite assuming asymptomatic individuals are only 367 1-3% as infectious as VL cases, by treating the population 368 as homogeneously mixing, such that all asymptomatic indi-369 viduals can infect all susceptible individuals via sandflies. In 370 reality, asymptomatic individuals do not mix homogeneously 371 with susceptible individuals as they are generally clustered 372 together around or near to VL cases (25, 28), who are much 373 more infectious and therefore more likely to infect suscepti-374 ble individuals around them, even if they are outnumbered 375 by asymptomatic individuals. Asymptomatic infection also 376 leads to immunity, and therefore local depletion of suscep-377 tible individuals around infectious individuals. Hence, for 378 the same relative infectiousness, the contribution of asymp-379 tomatic individuals to transmission is much lower when spatial 380 heterogeneity is taken into account.

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