Transmissibility of asymptomatic COVID-19: Data from Japanese clusters

Nakajo, Ko; Nishiura, Hiroshi

Background The relative importance of asymptomatic individuals who would never develop illness, compared to those who eventually develop symptoms, has yet to be fully clarified. Methods The very first cluster data in Tokyo and Kanagawa (n = 36) were analyzed. Movement of all close contact was restricted for 14 days and they underwent laboratory testing with polymerase chain reaction. The reproduction numbers of symptomatic and asymptomatic cases were estimated. Results The reproduction number for symptomatic cases was estimated to be 1.2 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.5-2.9). Relative infectiousness of asymptomatically infected cases was estimated to be 0.27 (95% CI: 0.03-0.81) of symptomatic cases. Conclusion The relative transmissibility of asymptomatic cases is limited. Observing clusters starting with symptomatic transmission might be sufficient for the control.