Author: Zhao, Shi; Cao, Peihua; Gao, Daozhou; Zhuang, Zian; Chong, Marc; Cai, Yongli; Ran, Jinjun; Wang, Kai; Lou, Yijun; Wang, Weiming; Yang, Lin; He, Daihai; Wang, Maggie H
Title: Modelling the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship using the public surveillance data from January 20 to February 20, 2020 Cord-id: onkdv388 Document date: 2020_2_29
ID: onkdv388
Snippet: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20, 2020. We model the transmission process on the ship with a stochastic model and estimate the basic reproduction number at 2.2 (95%CI: 2.1−2.4). We estimate a large dispersion parameter than other coronaviruses, which implies that the virus is difficult to go extinction. The epidemic doubling time is at 4.6 days (95%CI: 3.0−9.3), and thus timely actions were crucial
Document: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship has caused over 634 cases as of February 20, 2020. We model the transmission process on the ship with a stochastic model and estimate the basic reproduction number at 2.2 (95%CI: 2.1−2.4). We estimate a large dispersion parameter than other coronaviruses, which implies that the virus is difficult to go extinction. The epidemic doubling time is at 4.6 days (95%CI: 3.0−9.3), and thus timely actions were crucial. The lesson learnt on the ship is generally applicable in other settings.
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