Assessing regional risk of COVID-19 infection from Wuhan via high-speed rail

Li, Tao; Rong, Lili; Zhang, Anming

This paper demonstrates that transportation networks may be used to assess and predict the regional risk of COVID-19 infection from the outbreak. We use China’s high-speed rail (HSR) network at the scale of prefecture level to assess, based on a probabilistic risk model, the risk of COVID-19 infection from Wuhan to the country’s 31 province-level regions at the early stage of domestic spread. We find that the high-risk regions are mainly distributed along the southern half of Beijing-Hong Kong HSR line, where a large number of infection cases have been confirmed at the early stage. Furthermore, the two components of the infection risk, namely, the probability (proxied by the region’s correlation with Wuhan through HSR) and the impact (proxied by the region’s population with mobility), can play different roles in the risk ranking for different regions. For public health administrators, these findings may be used for better decision making, including the preparation of emergency plans and supplies, and the allocation of limited resources, before the extensive spread of the epidemic. Moreover, the administrators should adopt different intervention measures for different regions, so as to better mitigate the epidemic spread according to their own risk scenarios with respect to the probability of occurring and, once occurred, the impact.