Derivation of the effective reproduction number R for COVID-19 in relation to mobility restrictions and confinement

Alex Arenas; Wesley Cota; Jesus Gomez-Gardenes; Sergio Gomez; Clara Granell; Joan T. Matamalas; David Soriano-Panos; Benjamin Steinegger

Here we assess the performance of different containment measures to reduce the impact of COVID-19 using the mathematical model. To incorporate containment policies in our formalism, we consider that a given fraction of the adult population κ 0 is isolated at home whereas both young and elderly people are assume to stay at home . In this sense, let us remark that parameter κ 0 allows us to tune the strength of those containment mesaures proposed to contain COVID-19. In this sense, κ 0 = 1 reflects a total lockdown of the population which isolates the households from each other, thus constraining the transmission dynamics at the level of household rather than municipality. From the former assumptions, we compute the average number of contacts of agents belonging to each group g ∈ {Y, M, O} as