Association between the traffic level from other areas and the COVID-19 prevalence at the provincial levels in South Korea

Lee, Hocheol; Noh, Eunbi; Jeon, Huiwon; Nam, Eun Woo

Objectives To analyze the relationship between the traffic inflow and coronavirus disease (COVID-19) incidence in South Korea for formulating prevention policies for novel infections. Methods We evaluated the traffic inflow and newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in eight regions of Korea from January 1, 2020, to January 31, 2021. The toll collection system (TCS) traffic volume in 2019-2020 and traffic inflow trends were analyzed using independent samples t-test and nonlinear regression, respectively. The association between the TCS traffic volume and confirmed COVID-19 cases by city was analyzed using correlation analysis. Results The traffic volume in 2020 showed a 3.7% decrease from that in 2019. The TCS traffic trend in the eight provinces decreased during the first COVID-19 wave, gradually increased until the second wave, decreased after the second wave, and showed a sharp decrease in the third wave. There was a positive correlation between the traffic inflow volume and newly confirmed cases in Busan-Gyeongnam and Jeonbuk, but not in Daegu-Gyeongbuk or Gangwon. Conclusions A decrease in the number of new COVID-19 cases in the regions was associated with an increase in traffic inflow. Therefore, the Korean government will be able to establish preventive social distancing policies by identifying increases or decreases in traffic volume. Furthermore, it will be necessary to establish social distancing regulations according to the vaccine supplies in each area in relation to the traffic volume.