Author: Bimandra A Djaafara; Natsuko Imai; Esther Hamblion; Benido Impouma; Christl A Donnelly; Anne Cori
Title: A quantitative framework to define the end of an outbreak: application to Ebola Virus Disease Document date: 2020_2_20
ID: nnkholfe_7
Snippet: However, to date, only a small number of studies have focused on developing quantitative methods to define EO criteria, mostly for directly or air-borne transmitted diseases. Nishiura et al. (19) developed a probabilistic method to calculate the probability of observing additional cases of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in the future, based on the distribution of the serial interval (the time between symptom onset in a case and their inf.....
Document: However, to date, only a small number of studies have focused on developing quantitative methods to define EO criteria, mostly for directly or air-borne transmitted diseases. Nishiura et al. (19) developed a probabilistic method to calculate the probability of observing additional cases of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) in the future, based on the distribution of the serial interval (the time between symptom onset in a case and their infector) and the basic reproduction number (the average number of secondary infections generated by a single case in a large population with no immunity) of MERS. Eichner and Dietz (20) used stochastic simulations to determine the length of the case-free period before declaring the extinction of poliovirus with a specified error probability. Thompson et al. (21) used stochastic SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model simulations to assess the influence of underreporting of EVD cases on the confidence of declaring the end of an EVD outbreak.
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