Optimal timing for social distancing during an epidemic

Patterson-Lomba, Oscar

Social distancing is an effective way to contain the spread of a contagious disease, particularly when facing a novel pathogen and no pharmacological interventions are available. In such cases, conventional wisdom suggests that social distancing measures should be introduced as soon as possible after the beginning of an outbreak to more effectively mitigate the spread of the disease. Using a simple epidemiological model we show that, however, there is in fact an optimal time to initiate a temporal social distancing intervention if the goal is to reduce the final epidemic size or flatten the epidemic curve. The optimal timing depends strongly on the effective reproduction number (R0) of the disease, such that as the R0 increases, the optimal time decreases non-linearly. Additionally, if pharmacological interventions (e.g., a vaccine) become available at some point during the epidemic, the sooner these interventions become available the sooner social distancing should be initiated to maximize its effectiveness. Although based on a simple model, we hope that these insights inspire further investigations within the context of more complex and data-driven epidemiological models, and can ultimately help decision makers to improve temporal social distancing policies to mitigate the spread of epidemics.