Confirmed forecasts for the expansion of the COVID-19 epidemic in the S. Paulo city, Brazil

Celaschi, S.

An epidemiological compartmental model reported on May, 2020 was previously selected to estimate future outcomes to the dynamics of the Covid-19 epidemic breakout in the city of S. Paulo, Brazil. A time-dependent incidence weight on the reproductive basic number accounted for the Non Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs). A first series of official published data from March 1st to May 31st, 2020 was used to adjust the model parameters aiming to forecast one year of the COVID-19 evolutionary outbreak. The cohort study was set as a city population-based analysis. The population-based sample, 25,366 during the study period, was the number of confirmed cases on exposed individuals. The analysis was applied to predict the consequences of releasing the NPIs, and indicated the appearance of a second wave starting last quarter of 2020. By January 31st 2021, the number of confirmed cases was predicted to reach 0.49 Million (0.28-0.77), and fatalities would account for 22 thousand (11-32), 5 to 95% CRI. A second series of official data published from June 1st 2020 to January 31st, 2021 confirms all forecasts previously reported for the evolution of infected people and fatalities associated to this epidemic outbreak in the city of S. Paulo. By January 31st 2021, the official number of confirmed cases reached 469,657 (4 % above predicted average of accumulated cases), and fatalities accounted for 17,333 (19% above accumulated average of fatalities).