International travelers and genomics uncover a ‘hidden’ Zika outbreak

Nathan D. Grubaugh; Sharada Saraf; Karthik Gangavarapu; Alexander Watts; Amanda L. Tan; Rachel J. Oidtman; Jason T. Ladner; Glenn Oliveira; Nathaniel L. Matteson; Moritz U.G. Kraemer; Chantal B.F. Vogels; Aaron Hentoff; Deepit Bhatia; Danielle Stanek; Blake Scott; Vanessa Landis; Ian Stryker; Marshall R. Cone; Edgar W. Kopp; Andrew C. Cannons; Lea Heberlein-Larson; Stephen White; Leah D. Gillis; Michael J. Ricciardi; Jaclyn Kwal; Paola K. Lichtenberger; Diogo M. Magnani; David I. Watkins; Gustavo Palacios; Davidson H. Hamer; Lauren M. Gardner; T. Alex Perkins; Guy Baele; Kamran Khan; Andrea Morrison; Sharon Isern; Scott F. Michael; Kristian G. Andersen

By investigating news reports and modeling mosquito abundance, our study suggests that the Zika outbreak in Cuba may have been delayed by an Ae. aegypti control campaign (Fig. 4) (Gorry, 2016; Reardon, 2016) . This accomplishment highlights the value of mosquito control for limiting transmission , as Cuba may have been able to reduce the local burden of both dengue and Zika, despite otherwise conducive ecological conditions to support transmission of the viruses (Fig. 4B) . However, we were unable to confirm if the mosquito control campaign was indeed successful, or what was specifically done, and for how long. Rather, we had to rely on temperature-dependent modeling of Ae. aegypti-borne transmission and local news reporting to test our hypothesis that the delayed outbreak was environmentalor mosquito control-dependent. Having access to empirical mosquito abundance data would have allowed us to assess year-to-year differences in transmission potential and to specifically test if Ae. aegypti populations were reduced during the control campaign .