Author: Anita Shet; Debashree Ray; Neelika Malavige; Mathuram Santosham; Naor Bar-Zeev
Title: Differential COVID-19-attributable mortality and BCG vaccine use in countries Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: 1n96pz86_12
Snippet: The direct association between COVID-19-attributable mortality and country-level economic status observed in this analysis is starkly counterintuitive. Prior global disease burden assessments have suggested that deaths from acute respiratory illness are typically higher in low-income settings due to multiple socio-demographic and economic risk factors 16, 17 . Among observed COVID-19-attributable risk factors for disease severity and death, age o.....
Document: The direct association between COVID-19-attributable mortality and country-level economic status observed in this analysis is starkly counterintuitive. Prior global disease burden assessments have suggested that deaths from acute respiratory illness are typically higher in low-income settings due to multiple socio-demographic and economic risk factors 16, 17 . Among observed COVID-19-attributable risk factors for disease severity and death, age over 65 years has been identified as a significant factor 4,18 , while it is inferred that LMICs which typically have a younger population structure would potentially experience fewer overall deaths. Another potential confounder was the time lag in deaths following detection of cases. We selected countries with at least 100 reported cases and adjusted for time since this sentinel event. After adjusting for country economic status, proportion of older population and aligning the epidemic trajectories of the highest hit countries, the intriguing observation of a significant association between BCG use and lower COVID-19-attributable mortality remained discernable.
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