Impact of Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Healthcare Demand in Central Texas

Xutong Wang; Remy F Pasco; Zhanwei Du; Michaela Petty; Spencer J Fox; Alison P Galvani; Michael Pignone; S. Claiborne Johnston; Lauren Ancel Meyers

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.16.20068403 doi: medRxiv preprint even if social distancing measures are lifted. Assuming the faster four-day epidemic doubling time (Fig. 1B) , only the highest levels of social distancing suppress transmission over the summer. Under 75% or 90% social distancing, the lifting of measures on August 18th would be expected to produce epidemic peaks in the first or second week of September, respectively. Assuming the slower seven-day doubling time (Fig. 1A) , even delayed social distancing would be expected to forestall the start of the epidemic from spring to fall. The higher fall peaks that were produced under the most extreme social distancing stem from baseline contact patterns (in the absence of social distancing): a COVID-19 epidemic that begins in the spring would be naturally dampened by the three month summer vacation period when children are out of school, whereas fall start would be amplified by the start of the academic year.