Investigating spatial variability in COVID-19 pandemic severity across 19 geographic areas, Spain, 2020

Sushma Dahal; Kenji Mizumoto; Gerardo Chowell

The crude CFR is defined as the number of cumulative deaths divided by the number of cumulative cases at a specific point in time. For the estimation of CFR in real time, we employed the delay from hospitalization to death, h s , which is assumed to be given by h s = H(s) -H(s-1) for s>0 where H(s) is a cumulative density function of the delay from hospitalization to death and follows a gamma distribution with mean 10.1 days and SD 5.4 days, obtained from the previously published paper [4] . Let π a,ti be the time-delay adjusted case fatality ratio on reported day t i in area a, the likelihood function of the estimate π a,ti is . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.