Spatio-Temporal Variations in COVID-19 in Relation to the Global Climate Distribution and Fluctuations

Matthew, Olaniran Jonathan; Eludoyin, Adebayo Oluwole; Oluwadiya, Kehinde Sunday

This study investigates the spatio-temporal variations in the occurrence of COVID-19 (confirmed cases and deaths) in relation to climate fluctuations in 61 countries scattered around the world from December 31, 2019 to May 28, 2020. Logarithm transformation of the count variable (COVID-19 cases) was used in a multiple linear regression model to predict the potential effects of weather variables on the prevalence of the disease. The study revealed strong associations (-0.510 ≤ r ≤ -0.967; 0.519 ≤ r ≤0.999) between climatic variables and confirmed cases of COVID-19 in majority (68.85%) of the selected countries. It showed evidences of 1 to 7-day delays in the response of the infection to changes in weather pattern. Model simulations suggested that a unit fall in temperature and humidity could increase (0.04 -18.70%) the infection in 19.67% and 16.39% of the countries respectively while a general reduction (-0.05 —9.40%) in infection cases was projected in 14.75% countries with a unit drop in precipitation. In conclusion, the study suggests that effective public health interventions are crucial contain the projected upsurge in COVID-19 cases during both cold and warm seasons in the southern and northern hemispheres.