A quantitative framework to define the end of an outbreak: application to Ebola Virus Disease

Bimandra A Djaafara; Natsuko Imai; Esther Hamblion; Benido Impouma; Christl A Donnelly; Anne Cori

Using the quantitative simulation framework developed, we calculated the probability of cases arising in the future on various numbers of days after the outcome of the last detected case. We considered different scenarios (summarized in Web Table 1 ) by varying the offspring distribution of the outbreak, the length of the onsetto-outcome delay period, reporting rate, and assumed transmission scenario. Figure 2 shows the number of days taken (from the outcome of the last detected case) for the probability of cases arising in the future to fall below 5%, for six different offspring distributions.