When to Relax Social Distancing Measures? An ARIMA Based Forecasting Study

Hariharan, Ramya

The spread of the novel coronavirus across various countries is wide and rapid. The number of confirmed cases and the reproduction number are some of the epidemiological parameters utilized in scientific studies for the analysis and prediction of the viral transmission. The positive rate, an indicator on the extent of testing the population, aids in understanding the severity of the infection in a given geographic location. The positive rate for selected countries has been considered in this study to construct ARIMA based statistical models. The goodness of fit of the models are verified by the investigation of residuals, Box-Luang test and the forecast error values. The positive rates forecasted by the ARIMA models are utilized to investigate the scope for implementation of relaxations in social distancing measures in some countries and the necessity to tighten the rules further in some other countries.