Modeling Effect of Lockdowns and Other Effects on India Covid-19 Infections Using SEIR Model and Machine Learning

Sampath, Sathiyanarayanan; Bose, Joy

The SEIR model is a widely used epidemiological model used to predict the rise in infections. This model has been widely used in different countries to predict the number of Covid-19 cases. But the original SEIR model does not take into account the effect of factors such as lockdowns, vaccines, and re-infections. In India the first wave of Covid started in March 2020 and the second wave in April 2021. In this paper, we modify the SEIR model equations to model the effect of lockdowns and other influencers, and fit the model on data of the daily Covid-19 infections in India using lmfit, a python library for least squares minimization for curve fitting. We modify R0 parameter in the standard SEIR model as a rectangle in order to account for the effect of lockdowns. Our modified SEIR model accurately fits the available data of infections.