Dissecting genetic and sex-specific host heterogeneity in pathogen transmission potential

Jonathon A. Siva-Jothy; Pedro F. Vale

We used measures of virus shedding, lifespan following infection, and social 214 aggregation to predict individual transmission potential. We integrated these 215 measures based on a simple framework that describes transmission potential as a 216 function of contact rate between susceptible and infected individuals, the likelihood 217 that such contact will result in infection, and the duration of the infectious period 218 (VanderWaal & Ezenwa, 2016). Using previously analysed data on social aggregation 219 (Siva-Jothy & Vale, 2019), we used nearest neighbour distance as a measure of 220 contact rate. Flies that aggregated more closely to conspecifics, have a higher 221 contact rate, and are therefore more likely to spread DCV. We also assume that 222 transmission likelihood increases with virus shedding. We therefore take the amount proportions. An effect of sex or mating was analysed in separate models comparing 240 males or virgin females to the same dataset of mated females, respectively. 241