Author: Joshua S Weitz; Stephen J Beckett; Ashley R Coenen; David Demory; Marian Dominguez-Mirazo; Jonathan Dushoff; Chung-Yin Leung; Guanlin Li; Andreea Magalie; Sang Woo Park; Rogelio Rodriguez-Gonzalez; Shashwat Shivam; Conan Zhao
Title: Intervention Serology and Interaction Substitution: Modeling the Role of 'Shield Immunity' in Reducing COVID-19 Epidemic Spread Document date: 2020_4_3
ID: drj3al9t_11
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20049767 doi: medRxiv preprint mission with α = 20 is equivalent to a nearly 50% reduction in transmission in the absence of shield immunity. However, there is a trade-off. Because social distancing reduces contacts and transmission, there are fewer recovered individuals when β is reduced by 50%. Nonetheless benefits of shielding acc.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20049767 doi: medRxiv preprint mission with α = 20 is equivalent to a nearly 50% reduction in transmission in the absence of shield immunity. However, there is a trade-off. Because social distancing reduces contacts and transmission, there are fewer recovered individuals when β is reduced by 50%. Nonetheless benefits of shielding accrue at all levels of social distancing. Social distancing and shield immunity may work in combination to improve outcomes in terms of expected hospitalization burden, again suggesting a role for shield immunity in reducing transmission and reducing the negative impacts of suppression-level social distancing policies. Finally, we note that targeted shield immunity may also enhance population outcomes by focusing the effort of recovered individuals in subsets of the population. In the SI, we show heuristic solutions to an optimization formulation of targeted (i.e., age-specific) shield immunity in this model. In effect, by preferentially targeting older individuals, it is possible to further reduce cumulative deaths by ≈ 30% (see Figures S9-S11) .
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