Author: Morten Gram Pedersen; Matteo Meneghini
Title: A simple method to quantify country-specific effects of COVID-19 containment measures Document date: 2020_4_10
ID: aqwdg489_18
Snippet: We simulated the dynamics of the SIQR model (Fig. 3) and found that the data of the different countries was very well fitted when assuming piecewise-constant time-variance in β. From Eq. 3 and Eq. 5 (see Methods) it can be shown analytically that following the transient and during the initial exponential growth, I/Q = (γ + τ −1 1 )/η, where the com-bined recovery/death rate γ can be estimated from data (see Methods). In other words, the re.....
Document: We simulated the dynamics of the SIQR model (Fig. 3) and found that the data of the different countries was very well fitted when assuming piecewise-constant time-variance in β. From Eq. 3 and Eq. 5 (see Methods) it can be shown analytically that following the transient and during the initial exponential growth, I/Q = (γ + τ −1 1 )/η, where the com-bined recovery/death rate γ can be estimated from data (see Methods). In other words, the relation between Q and I follows directly from the data up to the factor η. With the value of η = 0.033/day that we use here, we obtain that, e.g., for Italy the number of hidden infectious individuals is ∼7 times the number of positive cases, whereas in N.Y.C. this number is as high as ∼15. In the other countries the value is 6-10. These I-to-Q-ratios are slightly higher than the result of a recent study on the number of unidentified infectious individual during the epidemic in China [8] , but in line with a study on the European countries [2] .
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- China epidemic and different country: 1, 2
- China epidemic and exponential growth: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
- China epidemic and η factor: 1, 2, 3
- China epidemic and η value: 1
- China epidemic and initial exponential growth: 1, 2, 3
- different country and european country: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11
- different country and european country study: 1, 2
- different country and exponential growth: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
- different country and η factor: 1, 2
- different country and initial exponential growth: 1
- european country and η factor: 1
- european country and η value: 1
- european country and infectious individual: 1, 2, 3
- exponential growth and η factor: 1
- exponential growth and η value: 1
- exponential growth and infectious individual: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
- exponential growth and initial exponential growth: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25
- β variance and η factor: 1, 2, 3, 4
- β variance and η value: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date