A simple method to quantify country-specific effects of COVID-19 containment measures

Morten Gram Pedersen; Matteo Meneghini

It is not obvious that specific interventions have the same effects in all countries. For example, school closures may have secondary effects concerning "smart working" of the parents staying at home with the children. However, the possibility to work from home depends on the type of job, so that school closures may have a bigger effect in countries with more tertiary sector jobs compared to, for example, factories. Further, there are social aspects that come into play, such as the possibility of grandparents to care for the children when schools close, which makes it possible for parents to continue working, but also expose the older citizens, who are the most vulnerable to COVID-19, to the disease. Naturally, also the relative number of children in the society play a role. Another important aspect to consider concerns national and regional cultural and psychological differences for example regarding respect versus authorities. If the general population does not trust the communications coming from health and political authorities, or if these communications are confusing and contradictory, more stringent bans can be necessary in order to contain the disease, since softer suggestions may not be followed.