The UK physician workforce: one-third at increased risk of death from COVID-19.

Verma, Ajay M; Goddard, Andrew F; O'Donoghue, Donal; Newbery, Nina; Phillips, Christopher; Trudgill, Nigel

INTRODUCTION 21% of NHS staff are from black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) backgrounds yet account for a disproportionately high number of medical-staff deaths from COVID-19. Using data from the published OpenSAFELY Collaborative, we analysed consultant physicians to determine those at increased risk of COVID-19 related death. METHODS Data from 13,500 consultant physicians collected by the Royal College of Physicians were analysed to determine those at an increased risk of death from COVID-19, assuming no comorbidities. RESULTS The data reveal a picture in which a third of consultant physicians have a hazard ratio (HR) >1 for dying from COVID-19; one in five have HR >2; one in 11, HR >3; and one in 40, HR >4. Of concern are the risks to male physicians aged ≥60 with HR >3.8. Sub-specialties including cardiology, endocrine and diabetes, gastroenterology, haematology, neurology and rheumatology have a greater risk profile due to high proportion of men, physicians of older age, and proportion of BAME individuals. CONCLUSION A third of consultant physicians have an increased risk of a COVID-19-related death, and one in five have a higher relative risk (HR >2). The risk is mainly driven by age, gender, and ethnicity, the risk is highest in male consultant physicians over 60, especially from BAME backgrounds.