Author: Masao Fukui; Kohei Kawaguchi; Hiroaki Matsuura
Title: Does TB Vaccination Reduce COVID-19 Infection?: No Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Analysis Document date: 2020_4_22
ID: gtzi409o_5
Snippet: We first conducted a regression discontinuity analysis using data from Colombia, the Czech Republic, Thailand, Vietnam, and Singapore. The identification assumption is that factors such as basic hygiene that can affect the COVID-19 infection rate do not discontinuously change around the age at which the BCG vaccination was introduced. If a comprehensive health care reform is implemented simultaneously with the introduction of a universal BCG poli.....
Document: We first conducted a regression discontinuity analysis using data from Colombia, the Czech Republic, Thailand, Vietnam, and Singapore. The identification assumption is that factors such as basic hygiene that can affect the COVID-19 infection rate do not discontinuously change around the age at which the BCG vaccination was introduced. If a comprehensive health care reform is implemented simultaneously with the introduction of a universal BCG policy, then this assumption is violated. However, any bias should occur in the same direction with the expected BCG effects, producing an upward bias. In this paper, we demonstrate that even with this potential upward bias, we do not observe any improvement in the COVID-19 infection rate at the age of policy change.
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