Dynamic Modeling to Identify Mitigation Strategies for Covid-19 Pandemic

Patrick Jenny; David F Jenny; Hossein Gorji; Markus Arnoldini; Wolf-Dietrich Hardt

is used, where k 0 k is the death rate of detected persons, if hospital treatment is provided, andn i|d = n i|d /n s,init is the fraction of infected detected persons. This model assumes that there exist eight intensive care beds per 100'000 persons [6] and that 10% of the detected infected persons are in need of such treatment. Clearly this fraction is age dependent (e.g. around 19% for individuals over 80 and 1% for 50-59 [6] ), but it is to be emphasized that the exact numbers do not change our overall analysis and that the reported statistics also bear a large margin of uncertainty. Accordingly, the saturation is reached once 0.08% of the population is detected as infected. Furthermore, we assume that without treatment in intensive care unties, 10% of the detected infected patients die 2 . Thus, without hospital treatment k k /(k k + k r ) = 0.1, from which one obtains