Author: Shi Zhao; Salihu S. Musa; Hao Fu; Daihai He; Jing Qin
Title: Large-scale Lassa fever outbreaks in Nigeria: quantifying the association between disease reproduction number and local rainfall Document date: 2019_4_8
ID: 6l8r09cd_19
Snippet: The rainfall time series of the five states and the weekly reported LF cases of the whole of Nigeria are shown in Figure 1 (a)-(b). We observe that the major LF epidemics usually occur in Nigeria between November and May of the following year. The cumulative lagged effects can be observed by matching the peak timing of the rainfall and epidemic curves. In Figure 1 (c), we shift the rainfall time series of the five states by +6.5 months to match .....
Document: The rainfall time series of the five states and the weekly reported LF cases of the whole of Nigeria are shown in Figure 1 (a)-(b). We observe that the major LF epidemics usually occur in Nigeria between November and May of the following year. The cumulative lagged effects can be observed by matching the peak timing of the rainfall and epidemic curves. In Figure 1 (c), we shift the rainfall time series of the five states by +6.5 months to match the trends of the national LF epidemic curve in Nigeria. To further test the credibility of this match, we use a simple statistical regression model of "case ~ α exp(β * rainfall) + θ", where α, β and θ are free parameters to be estimated, to check the outcome of the least-square fit. In Figure 1 (d)-(e), we find that the fit has a p-value less than 0.0001, which indicates a significant (statistical) association between the LF cases and shifted rainfall curve.
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