Disparities in the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic between Spanish Provinces

López-Mendoza, Héctor; Montañés, Antonio; Moliner-Lahoz, F. Javier

Spain experienced a second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in autumn 2020, which has been approached with different measures by regional authorities. We analyze the presence of convergence in the cumulative incidence for 14 days (CI(14)) in provinces and self-governing cities. The Phillips–Sul methodology was used to study the grouping of behavior between provinces, and an ordered logit model was estimated to understand the forces that drive creating the different convergence clubs. We reject the presence of a single pattern of behavior in the evolution of the CI(14) across territories. Four statistically different convergence clubs and an additional province (Madrid) with divergent behavior are observed. Provinces with developed agricultural and industrial economic sectors, high mobility, and a high proportion of Central and South American immigrants had the highest level of CI(14). We show that the transmission of the virus is not homogeneous in the Spanish national territory. Our results are helpful for identifying differences in determinants that could explain the pandemic’s evolution and for formulating hypotheses about the effectiveness of implemented measures.