Author: Jonas Dehning; Johannes Zierenberg; Frank Paul Spitzner; Michael Wibral; Joao Pinheiro Neto; Michael Wilczek; Viola Priesemann
Title: Inferring COVID-19 spreading rates and potential change points for case number forecasts Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: c8zfz8qt_70
Snippet: The change points take effect over a certain time period ∆t i for which we choose ∆t i ∼ LogNormal(log(3), 0.3) with a median of 3 days over which the spreading rate changes continuously as interventions have to become effective. The precise duration of the transition has hardly any affect on the cumulative number of cases ( Fig. 2 E-F) . We assumed a duration of three days, because some policies were not announced at the same day for all s.....
Document: The change points take effect over a certain time period ∆t i for which we choose ∆t i ∼ LogNormal(log(3), 0.3) with a median of 3 days over which the spreading rate changes continuously as interventions have to become effective. The precise duration of the transition has hardly any affect on the cumulative number of cases ( Fig. 2 E-F) . We assumed a duration of three days, because some policies were not announced at the same day for all states within Germany; moreover, the smooth transition also can absorb continuous changes in behavior.
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