Estimating healthcare resource needs for COVID-19 patients in Nigeria

Ogunbameru, A.; Barrett, K.; Joda, A.; Khan, Y. A.; Pechlivanoglou, P.; Mac, S.; Naimark, D.; Ximenes, R.; Sander, B.

Background: Predicting potential healthcare resource use under different scenarios will help to prepare the healthcare system for a surge in COVID-19 patients. In this study, we aim to predict the effect of COVID-19 on hospital resources in Nigeria. Method: We adopted a previously published discrete-time, individual-level, health-state transition model of symptomatic COVID-19 patients to the Nigerian healthcare system and COVID-19 epidemiology. We simulated different combined scenarios of epidemic trajectories and acute care capacity. Primary outcomes included expected cumulative number of cases, days until depletion resources, and the number of deaths associated with resource constraints. Outcomes were predicted over a 60-day time horizon. Results: In our best-case epidemic trajectory, which implies successful implementation of public health measures to control COVID-19 spread, the current number of ventilator resources in Nigeria (conservative resources scenario), were expended within five days, and 901 patients may die while waiting for hospital resources in conservative resource scenario. In our expanded resource scenarios, ventilated ICU beds were depleted in all three epidemic trajectories within 60 days. Acute care resources were only sufficient in the best-case and intermediate epidemic scenarios, combined with a substantial increase in healthcare resources. Conclusion: Current hospital resources are inadequate to manage the COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria. Given Nigeria's limited resources, it is imperative to increase healthcare resources and maintain aggressive public health measures to reduce COVID-19 transmission.