The impact of legislation on Covid-19 mortality in a Brazilian federative unit was mediated by social isolation.

Diaz-Quijano, F. A.; Ribeiro, T. B.; da Rosa, A. V.; Reis, R.; Aith, F.; Ventura, D. F. L.

This study aimed to estimate the effect of restrictive laws on actual social isolation and COVID-19 mortality. Moreover, we evaluated how community adherence, measured with an index of social isolation, would mediate the lockdown effect on COVID-19 mortality. Methods: This ecological study assessed the legislations published until June 30, 2020, in the Brazilian state of Ceara. We performed a systematic review and classification of restrictive norms and estimated their immediate effect on social isolation, measured by an index based on mobile data, and the subsequent impact on COVID-19 mortality (three weeks later). A mediation analysis was performed to estimate the effect of rigid lockdown on mortality that was explained for effective social isolation. Results: The social isolation index showed an increase of 11.9% (95% CI: 2.9% - 21%) during the days in which a rigid isolation norm (lockdown) was implemented. Moreover, this rigid lockdown was associated with a reduction of 26% (95% CI: 21% - 31%) in the three-week-delayed mortality. We also calculated that the rigid lockdown had the indirect effect, i.e., mediated by adherence to social isolation, of reducing COVID-19 mortality by 38.24% (95% CI: 21.64% to 56.07%). Therefore, the preventive effect of this norm was fully explained by the actual population adherence, reflected in the social isolation index. On the other hand, mandatory mask use was associated with 11% reduction in COVID-19 mortality (95% CI: 8% - 13%). Conclusions: We estimated the effect of quarantine regulations on social isolation and evidenced that a rigid lockdown law led to a reduction of COVID-19 mortality in one state of Brazil. In addition, the mandatory masks norm was an additional determinant of the reduction of this outcome.