Selected article for: "actual death and death count"
Author: Roman Marchant; Noelle I Samia; Ori Rosen; Martin A Tanner; Sally Cripps
Title: Learning as We Go: An Examination of the Statistical Accuracy of COVID19 Daily Death Count Predictions
  • Document date: 2020_4_17
    • ID: ijac68gh_15
    Snippet: the 1-step-ahead 95% PI upper limit, blue corresponds to those locations where the actual number of deaths was below the 1-step-ahead 95% PI lower limit, while grey corresponds to those locations where the actual number of deaths was within the 1-step-ahead 95% PI. This graph shows a very strong linear association between the predicted errors for the red locations (R 2 =96% n=25). This suggests that the additional information contained in the Mar.....
    Document: the 1-step-ahead 95% PI upper limit, blue corresponds to those locations where the actual number of deaths was below the 1-step-ahead 95% PI lower limit, while grey corresponds to those locations where the actual number of deaths was within the 1-step-ahead 95% PI. This graph shows a very strong linear association between the predicted errors for the red locations (R 2 =96% n=25). This suggests that the additional information contained in the March 30 data did little to improve the prediction for those locations where the actual death count was much higher than the predicted number of deaths. The number of observations in the other two subsets of data was insufficient to draw any firm conclusions.

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