Mathematical estimation of COVID-19 prevalence in Latin America

Matabuena, M.; Rodriguez Mier, P.; Meijide-Garcia, C.; Leboran, V.; Gude, F.

After the rapid spread with severe consequences in Europe and China, the SARS-CoV-2 virus is now manifesting itself in more vulnerable countries, including those in Latin America. In order to guide political decision-making via epidemiological criteria, it is crucial to assess the real impact of the epidemic. However, the use of large-scale population testing is unrealistic or not feasible in some countries. Based on a newly developed mathematical model, we estimated the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Latin American countries. The results show that the virus spreads unevenly across countries. For example, Ecuador and Brazil are the most affected countries, with approximately 3% of the infected population. Currently, the number of new infections is increasing in all countries examined, with the exception of some Caribbean countries as Cuba. Moreover, in these countries, the peak of newly infected patients has not yet been reached.