Author: Adam J Kucharski; Timothy W Russell; Charlie Diamond; Yang Liu; John Edmunds; Sebastian Funk; Rosalind M Eggo
Title: Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study Document date: 2020_2_2
ID: gmi1ewc2_27
Snippet: Based our on estimated reproduction number, and published estimates of individuallevel variation in transmission for SARS and MERS-CoV, we found that a single case introduced to a new location would not necessarily lead to an outbreak. Even if the reproduction number is as high as it has been in Wuhan in early January, it may take several introductions for an outbreak to establish; this is because high individual-level variation in transmission m.....
Document: Based our on estimated reproduction number, and published estimates of individuallevel variation in transmission for SARS and MERS-CoV, we found that a single case introduced to a new location would not necessarily lead to an outbreak. Even if the reproduction number is as high as it has been in Wuhan in early January, it may take several introductions for an outbreak to establish; this is because high individual-level variation in transmission makes new chains of transmission more fragile, and hence less likely that a single infection will generate out outbreak. This highlights the importance of rapid case identification, and subsequent isolation and other control measures to reduce the chance of onward chains of transmission (21) .
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