Inferring transmission trees to guide targeting of interventions against visceral leishmaniasis and post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis

Lloyd A. C. Chapman; Simon E. F. Spencer; Timothy M. Pollington; Chris P. Jewell; Dinesh Mondal; Jorge Alvar; T. Deirdre Hollingsworth; Mary M. Cameron; Caryn Bern; Graham F. Medley

2 of 37 . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. whereis the rate constant for spatial transmission between infected and susceptible individuals; K(dij) is the spatial kernel function that scales the transmission rate by the distance dij between individuals i and j; " (Ø 0) is a rate constant for additional within-household transmission; 1ij is an indicator function for individuals living in the same household, i.e. between an exponentially decaying spatial kernel and a Cauchy-type kernel in our previous study (1) (the exponential kernel 73 gave a marginally better fit), we use the exponential kernel here: and asymptomatic individuals, we take the relative infectiousness of pre-symptomatic individuals, h0, to be the same as that of 93 asymptomatic individuals (i.e. h0 = h4).