Off-season RSV epidemics in Australia after easing of COVID-19 restrictions

Eden, J.-S.; Sikazwe, C.; Xie, R.; Deng, Y.-M.; Sullivan, S. G.; Michie, A.; Levy, A.; Cutmore, E.; Blyth, C. C.; Britton, P. N.; Crawford, N.; Dong, X.; Dwyer, D. E.; Edwards, K. M.; Horsburgh, B. A.; Foley, D.; Kennedy, K.; Minney-Smith, C.; Speers, D.; Tulloch, R. L.; Holmes, E. C.; Dhanasekaran, V.; Smith, D. W.; Kok, J.; Barr, I. G.

Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important cause of acute respiratory infection (ARI) with the most severe disease in the young and elderly. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and travel restrictions for controlling COVID-19 have impacted the circulation of most respiratory viruses including RSV globally, particularly in Australia, where during 2020 the normal winter epidemics were notably absent. However, in late 2020, unprecedented widespread RSV outbreaks occurred, beginning in spring, and extending into summer across two widely separated states of Australia, Western Australia (WA) and New South Wales (NSW) including the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). Genome sequencing revealed a significant reduction in RSV genetic diversity following COVID-19 emergence except for two genetically distinct RSV-A clades. These clades circulated cryptically, likely localized for several months prior to an epidemic surge in cases upon relaxation of COVID-19 control measures. The NSW/ACT clade subsequently spread to the neighbouring state of Victoria (VIC) and caused extensive outbreaks and hospitalisations in early 2021. These findings highlight the need for continued surveillance and sequencing of RSV and other respiratory viruses during and after the COVID-19 pandemic as mitigation measures introduced may result in unusual seasonality, along with larger or more severe outbreaks in the future.