Temporal trends of COVID-19 mortality and hospitalisation rates: an observational cohort study from the US Department of Veterans Affairs

Cai, Miao; Bowe, Benjamin; Xie, Yan; Al-Aly, Ziyad

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the temporal trends of 30-day mortality and hospitalisation in US Veterans with COVID-19 and 30-day mortality in hospitalised veterans with COVID-19 and to decompose the contribution of changes in the underlying characteristics of affected populations to these temporal changes. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING: US Department of Veterans Affairs. PARTICIPANTS: 49 238 US veterans with a positive COVID-19 test between 20 March 2020 and 19 September 2020; and 9428 US veterans hospitalised with a positive COVID-19 test during the same period. OUTCOME MEASURES: 30-day mortality rate and hospitalisation rate. RESULTS: Between 20 March 2020 and 19 September 2020 and in COVID-19 positive individuals, 30-day mortality rate dropped by 9.2% from 13.6% to 4.4%; hospitalisation rate dropped by 16.8% from 33.8% to 17.0%. In hospitalised COVID-19 individuals, 30-day mortality rate dropped by 12.7% from 23.5% to 10.8%. Among COVID-19 positive individuals, decomposition analyses suggested that changes in demographic, health and contextual characteristics, COVID-19 testing capacity, and hospital occupancy rates accounted for 40.2% and 33.3% of the decline in 30-day mortality and hospitalisation, respectively. Changes in the underlying characteristics of hospitalised COVID-19 individuals accounted for 29.9% of the decline in 30-day mortality. CONCLUSION: Between March and September 2020, changes in demographic and health characteristics of people infected with COVID-19 contributed measurably to the substantial decline in 30-day mortality and hospitalisation.