Author: Quaranta, Giuseppe; Formica, Giovanni; Machado, J. Tenreiro; Lacarbonara, Walter; Masri, Sami F.
Title: Understanding COVID-19 nonlinear multi-scale dynamic spreading in Italy Cord-id: uo9b1tzx Document date: 2020_9_1
ID: uo9b1tzx
Snippet: The outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy took place in Lombardia, a densely populated and highly industrialized northern region, and spread across the northern and central part of Italy according to quite different temporal and spatial patterns. In this work, a multi-scale territorial analysis of the pandemic is carried out using various models and data-driven approaches. Specifically, a logistic regression is employed to capture the evolution of the total positive cases in each region and throughout I
Document: The outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy took place in Lombardia, a densely populated and highly industrialized northern region, and spread across the northern and central part of Italy according to quite different temporal and spatial patterns. In this work, a multi-scale territorial analysis of the pandemic is carried out using various models and data-driven approaches. Specifically, a logistic regression is employed to capture the evolution of the total positive cases in each region and throughout Italy, and an enhanced version of a SIR-type model is tuned to fit the different territorial epidemic dynamics via a differential evolution algorithm. Hierarchical clustering and multidimensional analysis are further exploited to reveal the similarities/dissimilarities of the remarkably different geographical epidemic developments. The combination of parametric identifications and multi-scale data-driven analyses paves the way toward a closer understanding of the nonlinear, spatially nonuniform epidemic spreading in Italy.
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