Author: Roman Marchant; Noelle I Samia; Ori Rosen; Martin A Tanner; Sally Cripps
Title: Learning as We Go: An Examination of the Statistical Accuracy of COVID19 Daily Death Count Predictions Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: ijac68gh_11
Snippet: expect only 5% of observed death counts to lie outside the 95% PI. For a given day the model is also biased, although the direction of the bias is not constant across days. For the 1-step-ahead prediction for March 30th, 49% of all locations were over-predicted, that is 49% of all locations had a death count which was below the 95% PI lower limit, while 23% were under-predicted. For March 31st the reverse was true; only 16% of locations had actua.....
Document: expect only 5% of observed death counts to lie outside the 95% PI. For a given day the model is also biased, although the direction of the bias is not constant across days. For the 1-step-ahead prediction for March 30th, 49% of all locations were over-predicted, that is 49% of all locations had a death count which was below the 95% PI lower limit, while 23% were under-predicted. For March 31st the reverse was true; only 16% of locations had actual death counts below the 95% PI lower limit while 49% had actual death counts above the 95% PI upper limit. This can be clearly seen from Figures 1a and 1b which are predominantly blue, and red, respectively. These figures are summarized in Table 1 .
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